June 23, 2026
War On Iran: – Israel, And Trump Himself, Are Hindering Conflict Solution
The talks between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran as agreed upon in their Memorandum of Understanding are veering off course.
There are two major forces who are threatening to derail the agreement.
One is, very predictably, Israel which does its best to sabotage the talks. The MoU empathizes the end of fighting in Lebanon and the retreat of Israeli forces from Lebanese ground.
While Israel, after pressure from the U.S., had stopped fighting over the weekend its officials have stated that there will be no retreat of their forces. Today Israeli troops attacked Lebanese civilians who were clearing a road in Nabatieh. It then attacked the civil defense forces which tried to help those wounded during the first strike.
The U.S., Iran and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators had agreed over the weekend to install an observer group to prevent such incidents. Iran will demand that the U.S. intervene in the case. It will otherwise take its own measures which may end up to again block the Strait of Hormuz.
The second force which is disrupting the talks is the U.S. itself. The first clause of the MoU obligates both sides to refrain from threatening each other. While the talks on Saturday/Sunday were ongoing U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to kill the Iranian negotiators. This was of course bollocks but had to be taken seriously. The direct talks between the U.S. and Iranian delegations were immediately stopped. Less effective, indirect talks with the help of mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continued.
The Iran side said that the U.S. had agreed to release Iranian funds which had been held under sanctions. The U.S. also lifted, for 60 days, sanctions on the sales of Iranian oil. Both measures are mere openers – pre-conditions by Iran – for any further talk.
Now the U.S., through the president and Vice President Vance, makes claims that Iran had agreed to use the unfreezed money to buy U.S. agricultural products. They also claimed that Iran would invite the IAEA to inspect all of its nuclear programs.
Iran has rejected both points. The MoU states that Iran will be free to use its released money however it likes. It also states that no talks and agreements about the nuclear issues will take place before other conditions have been fulfilled.
The U.S. is thus falsely claiming points which are in direct contradiction to the agreement it had itself signed on to.
Currently the Strait of Hormuz is open for traffic that follows the directives Iran had issued for peaceful passages. The majority of ships that have passed during the last two days were Iranian tankers with Iranian oil and destinations in China. Little of other products have left the Persian Gulf as shipowners and insurances will not risk a passage unless they are sure that there will be no more hostilities.
With no fresh product in reasonable quantities coming out of other Gulf states than Iran the squeeze in the oil and liquefied gas market continues. There are three to six weeks left until global reserves run dry and until markets disrupt with serious consequences.
The clock is ticking for Donald Trump. He will have to rein in Israel. He will also have to stop himself from making threats and overbearing claims of U.S. successes with regards to Iran. He needs to do that immediately. Otherwise the U.S. and the global economy will suffer what Trump himself had called a catastrophe.
Iran, meanwhile, has all the time it needs to improve its global position. Its speaker of parliament has visited Oman to work on a common regulation for the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian president is visiting Pakistan. The foreign minister in on his way to China. Iran is setting the diplomatic stage for its new dominant role in the Middle East.
Everyone watching the conflict has recognized that the U.S. has lost the war. Trump’s attempts to sell it as victory are endangering the MoU and a peaceful solution. In a week or so he may even try new escalations.
But with any new hostilities he will end up in a worse situation.